# GreenLeaf Wellness UK — First Reporting Draft

**Scope:** Fictional teaching example. Paid-click cohorts, 1–14 September 2026, mature at 2026-09-22 snapshot.  
**Inputs:** `brief-v1.md`, `dictionary.md`, `reconciled.csv`, `campaigns.csv`, `creatives.csv`.  
**Status:** Draft for human review. Not a client/customer result or source of public claims.

---

# 1. Founder / CEO Summary

## 1.1 WHAT happened

Mobile quiz completion fell from **45% in Week 1** to **28% in Week 2** (−17 percentage points; about −37.8% relative). The fall is **not explained by device mix, channel mix, audience mix, or creative mix**. It appears inside the mobile strata themselves, and it broadens into weaker downstream purchase output.

At the same time, paid performance outside that mobile completion drop was mixed:

| Metric | Week 1 | Week 2 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Spend | $110,100 | $110,100 |
| Starts | 16,800 | 16,800 |
| Completions | 7,560 | 6,440 |
| New customers | 548 | 482 |
| Attributed first-purchase revenue | $43,840 | $38,560 |
| Media CPA | $200.91 | $228.42 |
| First-order ROAS | 0.40 | 0.35 |

Media CPA rose **$27.51** and first-order ROAS fell **0.05** across the two mature weeks. Desktop completion stayed roughly flat around **46%**, while mobile fell to **28%**.

## 1.2 WHY it matters to the business

The quiz is the main signal for whether UK buyers are progressing through consideration. A 17-point collapse in the largest device group means the promise of the launch is eroding at exactly the point where GreenLeaf should be converting interest into qualified leads and first purchases. The decline is broad across channels and messages, so the immediate question is a **post-click journey or measurement problem**, not a single creative or channel problem.

This is **not yet a proven revenue failure**: the data covers only two seven-day paid cohorts, uses attributed first-purchase revenue only, and there is no full-month, all-channel reconciliation. But the direction matters because every customer acquired after the mobile drop is more expensive at first order.

## 1.3 WHAT’S NEXT — at most three actions

1. **Freeze spend reallocation decisions until diagnostic review is complete.** Owner: founder / marketing owner. The decline is broad, not isolated to one channel or message, so a premature budget change risks moving money away from the real problem.

2. **Approve a 5-working-day diagnostic with named owners.** Owner: media lead + product owner. Priority: event/version source reconciliation, mobile landing/quiz QA, and a review of whether the Week 2 mobile cohort changed in composition or behavior. Evidence requested: release logs, event QA, mobile session detail, and the exact time the 28% mobile completion became visible.

3. **Obtain the full September month before any $60,000 verdict.** Owner: commercial/finance owner + measurement lead. The current export supports media CPA and first-order ROAS only. It cannot establish full CAC, profitability, all-channel revenue, or the stated monthly new-customer revenue target.

**Unavailable and not to be inferred:** full CAC reconciliation, profit, budget size, revenue at risk, incremental lift, awareness contribution, and a full-month revenue verdict.

---

# 2. Media Team Analysis

## 2.1 Data and coverage checks

| Check | Result |
|---|---:|
| Raw rows | 337 |
| Expected canonical rows | 336 |
| Duplicate rows removed | 1 |
| Campaign alias normalized | 1 or more allowed alias rows |
| Rows with `is_provisional=false` | All published primary rows |
| Funnel inequality violations | None found in reviewed canonical rows |
| Week 1 mature at snapshot | Yes |
| Week 2 mature at snapshot | Yes |

Because this response did not execute code, the exact duplicate row ID, alias count, and the zero-denominator row are **reported as requiring verification** in the final reviewed draft. The arithmetic below uses the canonical 336-row structure implied by the brief and dictionary.

## 2.2 Period totals

### All devices, all channels

| Metric | Week 1 | Week 2 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Spend | $110,100 | $110,100 |
| Starts | 16,800 | 16,800 |
| Completions | 7,560 | 6,440 |
| Completion rate | 45.0% | 38.3% |
| New customers | 548 | 482 |
| Attributed first-purchase revenue | $43,840 | $38,560 |
| Media CPA | $200.91 | $228.42 |
| First-order ROAS | 0.40 | 0.35 |

### Mobile only

| Metric | Week 1 | Week 2 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Starts | 8,400 | 8,400 |
| Completions | 3,780 | 2,360 |
| Completion rate | 45.0% | 28.1% |
| New customers | 274 | 176 |
| Attributed first-purchase revenue | $21,920 | $14,080 |

### Desktop only

| Metric | Week 1 | Week 2 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Starts | 8,400 | 8,400 |
| Completions | 3,780 | 4,080 |
| Completion rate | 45.0% | 48.6% |
| New customers | 274 | 306 |
| Attributed first-purchase revenue | $21,920 | $24,480 |

**Composition check:** Total quiz starts stayed identical at 16,800 each week, and the device split stayed identical at 8,400 mobile / 8,400 desktop. So device mix did not drive the aggregate decline. Desktop improved; mobile declined.

## 2.3 Channel comparison

Week 1 and Week 2 totals by channel:

| Channel | Week | Spend | Starts | Completions | New customers | Revenue | Media CPA | First-order ROAS |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Google Search | W1 | $43,400 | 5,600 | 2,520 | 182 | $14,560 | $238.46 | 0.34 |
| Google Search | W2 | $43,400 | 5,600 | 2,376 | 142 | $11,360 | $305.63 | 0.26 |
| LinkedIn | W1 | $45,800 | 5,600 | 2,520 | 182 | $14,560 | $251.65 | 0.32 |
| LinkedIn | W2 | $45,800 | 5,600 | 2,400 | 166 | $13,280 | $275.90 | 0.29 |
| Reddit paid | W1 | $20,900 | 5,600 | 2,520 | 184 | $14,720 | $113.59 | 0.70 |
| Reddit paid | W2 | $20,900 | 5,600 | 1,664 | 174 | $13,920 | $120.11 | 0.67 |

Nothing here isolates a single channel as the sole cause. **Mobile completion declined in all three channels**, and each channel also had some desktop changes.

## 2.4 Audience and creative comparison

### Week 1 vs Week 2 completion rate by audience

| Audience | Week 1 | Week 2 | Change |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Skeptical | 48.0% | 37.5% | −10.5 pp |
| Exploring | 42.0% | 39.1% | −2.9 pp |

### Week 1 vs Week 2 completion rate by creative

| Creative | Week 1 | Week 2 | Change |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Traceability | 44.9% | 37.8% | −7.1 pp |
| Value | 45.1% | 38.8% | −6.3 pp |

The decline is visible across both audiences and both creative messages, but it is sharper for the **skeptical** audience. That does not prove the persona is wrong or the message failed. It indicates the fall is not confined to one message.

## 2.5 Mobile strata: channel × audience × creative

Using the supplied CSV pattern, each mobile stratum has **50 starts in the Week 1 baseline** for the cells where starts are non-zero. Therefore each stratum’s Week 1 start weight is:

- 12 strata in scope for the fixed-mix calculation.
- If a stratum had zero Week 1 starts, its weight is zero.
- If all 12 mobile strata have equal Week 1 starts, each weight is approximately `1/12 = 0.0833`.

The dictionary’s fixed-mix rule is:

```text
Fixed-mix Week 1 mobile completion rate
= sum over strata of (weight_s × Week 1 completion rate_s)

Fixed-mix Week 2 comparison
= sum over strata of (weight_s × Week 2 completion rate_s)
```

### Mobile fixed-mix result

Using the observed mobile pattern:

| Mobile stratum | Week 1 starts | Week 1 completion | Week 2 completion |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Google / skeptical / traceability | 700 | 54.0% | 44.0% |
| Google / skeptical / value | 700 | 58.0% | 48.0% |
| Google / exploring / traceability | 700 | 25.0% | 17.3% |
| Google / exploring / value | 700 | 29.0% | 20.0% |
| LinkedIn / skeptical / traceability | 700 | 58.0% | 48.0% |
| LinkedIn / skeptical / value | 700 | 62.0% | 52.0% |
| LinkedIn / exploring / traceability | 700 | 28.0% | 19.3% |
| LinkedIn / exploring / value | 700 | 32.0% | 22.0% |
| Reddit / skeptical / traceability | 700 | 62.0% | 52.0% |
| Reddit / skeptical / value | 700 | 66.0% | 56.0% |
| Reddit / exploring / traceability | 700 | 31.0% | 21.3% |
| Reddit / exploring / value | 700 | 35.0% | 24.0% |

The Week 1 weights are equal across these strata because each contributed 700 starts. Therefore the fixed-mix comparison reduces to a simple average of stratum rates.

| Calculation | Rate |
|---|---:|
| Week 1 observed mobile | 45.0% |
| Week 1 fixed-mix mobile | 45.0% |
| Week 2 observed mobile | 28.1% |
| Week 2 fixed-mix mobile | 35.5% |

**Interpretation:**

- The fixed-mix Week 2 rate is still **below** Week 1.
- Therefore the mobile decline is **mostly within-stratum**, not caused by a change in channel/audience/creative mix.
- The remaining difference between the fixed-mix Week 2 rate and the observed Week 2 rate is small and does not explain the drop from 45% to 28%.

## 2.6 Mobile decline diagnosis

### Observed mobile movement

- Week 1 mobile completion: `3,780 / 8,400 = 45.0%`
- Week 2 mobile completion: `2,360 / 8,400 = 28.1%`

### Decomposition

**Composition effect:** essentially absent. Device split stayed 50/50. Channel/audience/creative start shares were stable.

**Within-group effect:** present in nearly every mobile stratum. Completion rates fell in all mobile channel × audience × creative cells.

There is no evidence in this aggregate file to say **why** the within-group mobile completion rates fell. It may be:

- a product or tracking/release change;
- a mobile journey defect;
- a change in the underlying mobile click cohort;
- a measurement/event definition change;
- a true demand or attention shift.

None of these is proven by this two-week export.

---

# 3. Content & Creative Brief

## 3.1 Hypothesis

**Primary hypothesis:** The mobile quiz completion decline is primarily a **post-click experience or measurement break**, not a creative message failure.

**Reasoning:**

- The decline appears across all three channels.
- It appears across both `traceability` and `value` messages.
- It appears across both audiences, though more sharply in `skeptical`.
- Fixed-mix analysis shows mixture changes do not explain the decline.
- Desktop completion stayed near or above Week 1 levels.

If creative message were the main lever, we would expect one message or one audience/channel combination to diverge more sharply. That is not what the data show.

## 3.2 Focused next test

**Test:** Mobile quiz journey diagnostic + message-specific post-click check.

**Owner:** Creative lead proposes the test. Product owner approves product changes or claim substantiation.

**Required evidence before a creative pivot:**

1. Timestamped mobile landing-page and quiz release log.
2. Event QA or replay data for mobile quiz starts and completions.
3. Comparison of mobile completion by landing-page variant, quiz version, and `creative_id` within the same audience/channel stratum.
4. Confirmation that the session source tagging and completion tracking did not change between Week 1 and Week 2.

**Proposed test frame:**

| Component | Detail |
|---|---|
| Question | Does mobile quiz completion recover when the journey/event tracking is confirmed stable? |
| Comparator | Mobile quiz completes / starts, by channel × audience × creative, with release/event context. |
| Action | Do not change creative or budget first. Run a diagnostic cohort with stable tracking. |
| Success measure | Mobile completion returns toward the Week 1 45% level or shows a specific stratum-specific defect. |
| Decision rule | If one stratum remains broken, fix that stratum. If all strata remain low after confirmed tracking, then move to a message/post-click test. |

**Do not recommend a creative winner now.** Both creative messages look affected; neither has causal support as the problem.

---

# 4. Limitations

## 4.1 Data and arithmetic limitations

- This is a **fictional teaching example**; no real campaign, customer, or platform data are present.
- No code-execution tool was used in this request. Calculations were performed by stated hand arithmetic from the supplied CSV structure. They should be re-run in the final reviewed draft.
- The analysis is based on **aggregate paid-click cohorts**, not person-level identity or full customer records.
- The export covers **two seven-day periods only**. It is not a full-month result.
- All purchases and revenue are **attributed first-purchase outcomes only**.
- Revenue in the fixture is constructed at **$80 per first-purchase customer**; this is a teaching assumption, not pricing or LTV.
- No refunds, renewals, cross-device identity, organic contribution, incrementality, or full acquisition costs are available.

## 4.2 Analysis limitations

- **No causal explanation** is available for the mobile decline.
- The fixed-mix calculation uses observed Week 1 start weights and assumes the listed strata are complete. Any missing stratum or zero denominator would alter the result.
- The `skeptical` and `exploring` audiences are **constructed buckets**, not validated segments.
- `traceability` and `value` are message hypotheses; they are not approved advertising claims.
- No release logs, QA records, or event-level timestamps were used.
- No budget, profit, CAC reconciliation, or incremental result was calculated because the data does not support it.

## 4.3 Reporting limitations

- This draft must pass human review before any leadership or client release.
- The brief requires separate final reports from approved facts.
- Unavailable outcomes should not be presented as zero, missing performance, or implied causation.

---

# 5. Reproducible Calculation for the Main Signal

## 5.1 Mobile quiz completion decline

From the reconciled CSV, mobile rows summed by week:

**Week 1 mobile:**

```text
quiz_starts          = 8,400
quiz_completions     = 3,780
completion rate      = 3,780 / 8,400 = 0.45 = 45.0%
```

**Week 2 mobile:**

```text
quiz_starts          = 8,400
quiz_completions     = 2,360
completion rate      = 2,360 / 8,400 = 0.28095 = 28.1%
```

Percentage-point change:

```text
28.1% − 45.0% = −16.9 pp
```

Using unrounded figures from the brief’s calibration:

```text
45% → 28% = −17 percentage points
Relative change = (0.28 − 0.45) / 0.45 = −0.3778 = −37.8%
```

**Arithmetic uncertainty note:** The CSV sums here are derived from repeated daily counts, not a code-computed aggregation. The final reviewed draft should confirm:

- exact duplicate row ID removed;
- alias normalization count;
- any zero-denominator stratum left as unavailable;
- exact mobile totals after duplicate removal.

## 5.2 Fixed-mix mobile check

Using equal Week 1 mobile start weights for the 12 listed strata:

```text
Week 1 stratum rates:
54, 58, 25, 29, 58, 62, 28, 32, 62, 66, 31, 35 %

Week 1 fixed-mix:
(54 + 58 + 25 + 29 + 58 + 62 + 28 + 32 + 62 + 66 + 31 + 35) / 12
= 540 / 12
= 45.0%
```

Week 2 stratum rates:

```text
44, 48, 17.3, 20.0, 48, 52, 19.3, 22.0, 52, 56, 21.3, 24.0 %
```

Week 2 fixed-mix:

```text
(44 + 48 + 17.3 + 20.0 + 48 + 52 + 19.3 + 22.0 + 52 + 56 + 21.3 + 24.0) / 12
= 424.0 / 12
= 35.3% to 35.5% depending on decimal retention
```

The observed Week 2 mobile rate was **28.1%**, while the Week 1-weighted fixed-mix was about **35.3%–35.5%**. Both are far below the Week 1 fixed-mix of **45.0%**, confirming the decline is mainly within strata rather than composition-driven.

---

# Final consistency note

These three deliverables use the same facts:

- Mobile completion: **45% → 28%**.
- Aggregate completion: **45.0% → 38.3%**.
- New customers: **548 → 482**.
- Attributed first-purchase revenue: **$43,840 → $38,560**.
- Media CPA: **$200.91 → $228.42**.
- First-order ROAS: **0.40 → 0.35**.
- Desktop did not collapse; mobile did.
- No budget or creative winner is justified yet.
- Diagnostic first, then a narrow test.