The Potential Role of Artificial Intelligence in Shaping Modern Geopolitics: A Balanced Perspective with Real-World Examples

Two of my favorite rabbit holes are AI and geopolitics. I spend an embarrassing amount of time reading about both — one because of my work in advertising (where AI is reshaping everything), and the other because, well, growing up Vietnamese and living across Asia for 15+ years gives you a front-row seat to how global power dynamics play out in real life. So when these two topics collide, I get genuinely excited :D

This post is my attempt to connect the dots between AI development and geopolitical shifts. I should say upfront: I'm not a political scientist or an AI researcher. I'm an advertising guy who reads a lot and thinks about this stuff probably more than is healthy. Take my observations with that context in mind.

AI as an Economic Weapon

The country that leads in AI stands to gain a massive economic advantage — and everyone knows it. China has been very open about its goal to become an AI superpower by 2030, pouring government and private money into research. In the US, the ChatGPT moment (roughly six months before I wrote this) triggered billions in generative AI investment almost overnight. Since then, the investment race has only accelerated — the US CHIPS Act, EU AI Act, and China's domestic chip programs are all attempts to control the supply chain that powers AI development.

McKinsey estimates AI could add up to $13 trillion to the global economy by 2030. That's a staggering number. But from my experience watching the tech industry from the advertising side, I think the benefits won't be evenly distributed. The countries and companies that move fastest will capture most of that value, which raises real concerns about monopolies, job displacement, and widening inequality. Look at semiconductors: Taiwan produces the vast majority of advanced AI chips through TSMC, which makes it one of the most geopolitically significant islands on Earth. The US export controls on advanced chips to China are as much a geopolitical maneuver as an economic one.

The Military Dimension

This is the part that keeps me up at night, honestly. AI is already integrated into military operations — the US military's Project Maven uses AI to analyze drone footage, and that's just what's public. Autonomous weapons, cyber warfare, intelligence analysis — AI is everywhere in defense now.

The potential for an AI arms race between the US and China (and others) feels very real to me. Having grown up in the shadow of Cold War aftereffects in Vietnam, the idea of a new technology-driven arms race is... not comforting. What makes AI different from previous military technologies is the speed at which decisions can be made. When an AI system can identify and engage a target faster than a human can evaluate the situation, the question of who has the authority to use lethal force gets genuinely terrifying. And unlike nuclear weapons, which have decades of arms control frameworks around them, there are almost no international agreements governing AI in warfare.

The Workforce Question

This one hits close to home. The World Economic Forum estimated AI and automation could displace 85 million jobs by 2025, while creating 97 million new roles. (Note: That 2025 deadline has now passed, and the actual displacement has been more gradual but also more structural than the headline numbers suggest — entire categories of knowledge work are being reshaped rather than eliminated overnight.) Net positive on paper, but the people losing jobs aren't necessarily the same people getting the new ones.

As someone who pivoted into coding at 40, I'm a big believer in upskilling and reskilling. But I also know firsthand how hard it is. Not everyone has the time, resources, or employer support to completely reinvent their career. This is a geopolitical issue too — countries that manage this transition well will thrive, and those that don't will face serious social instability. You can already see the divergence: nations with strong public education systems and social safety nets are investing in AI literacy programs, while others are left scrambling. The gap between AI-ready and AI-unprepared workforces could become as significant as the digital divide was a generation ago.

AI and Emerging Economies

India's push for AI in healthcare, agriculture, and education is a great example of how emerging economies can use AI to leapfrog traditional development paths. Rwanda is using AI-powered drones for medical supply delivery. Indonesia is experimenting with AI for disaster prediction. These are not vanity projects — they represent a genuine opportunity for countries to skip entire stages of infrastructure development.

But there's a serious risk of dependency. If your AI infrastructure relies on tech from the US or China, that creates geopolitical leverage that can be used against you. We've already seen this with Huawei's 5G rollout — countries that adopted Chinese telecom infrastructure found themselves caught in the middle of US-China tensions. AI infrastructure could follow the same pattern, with cloud platforms and foundation models becoming the new points of leverage.

The Other Fronts

AI's geopolitical reach extends further than economics and defense. It's reshaping diplomacy — AI-driven data analysis can improve policymaking, but deepfakes and disinformation campaigns undermine trust between nations (the Cambridge Analytica scandal was an early preview). It's reshaping the environment — Google's DeepMind reduced data center energy consumption by up to 40%, and climate cooperation could become an area where AI brings nations together. And it's reshaping soft power — from AI-powered surveillance systems exported globally to AI-generated cultural content, the ways nations project influence are changing fast.

Where I Think This Is Headed

PwC projects AI will contribute up to $15.7 trillion to global GDP by 2030. The stakes are enormous. I think the nations that establish clear AI governance frameworks — balancing innovation with ethics — will be the ones that come out ahead. But getting global agreement on AI standards feels about as easy as getting everyone to agree on anything else in international politics, which is to say: very difficult.

From where I sit, the AI geopolitics race is the defining competition of our generation. And unlike the space race, this one affects every industry, every job, and every country — including the ones that aren't even at the table yet.

What's your take on AI's geopolitical impact? I'm especially curious to hear from folks who've lived in multiple countries — do you see this playing out differently depending on where you are?

Cheers,

Chandler