Chat對Paid Search Revenue同SEO嘅潛在影響

而家已經clear咗Bing Search & OpenAI嘅整合同即將嘅Google Bard public release，一個重要嘅question係呢個development對Search engine marketing（paid search同SEO）嘅impact。

喺呢篇文章，我會share我對呢個topic嘅想法，同埋對publishers嘅potential impact。

2023年5月更新：呢篇文章喺2023年2月publish之後，我喺5月寫咗續集喺呢度。

1) 對Paid search revenue嘅潛在影響

關鍵question係，如果人開始用Chat多過normal search engine interface去搵答案，paid search revenue會點？

好多人推測短期內會有兩件事發生：

• Total search query volume會drop因為人需要fewer queries就搵到exactly想要嘅嘢。Chat machine會俾我哋"exact"答案。
• 用傳統search engine interface嘅query volume會decrease因為人似乎更鍾意chat interface。

不過，鑒於現時嘅Bing Chat results有好多factual errors（連上個禮拜嘅big announcement都有），唔可以foregorge conclude話人會用Chat bot做所有types嘅searches，導致total query volume significant drop。（Side note：呢個係我對Bing Search嘅wrong factual information嘅reaction。）

我哋仲未test到Google Bard因為佢仲未release俾public。鑒於Sundar Pichai（Google CEO）公開嘅tweet "3/ We'll combine their feedback with our own internal testing to make sure Bard's responses meet our high bar for quality, safety, and groundedness..."，我哋要assume Google好清楚LLMs嘅factually wrong answers問題，而且努力minimize佢哋。

人可能好快learn到佢哋需要用傳統search interface去睇search results同judge information嘅validity。

所以短期內，對paid search revenue嘅possible impact可以係：

• 隨住傳統search engine interface嘅query volume下降，total impressions/inventory下降。
• Inventory更少加上auction制度，advertisers可能需要bid更高先令ads出現。
  • 佢哋會increase幾多bid取決於ads可以帶來嘅ROI。所以有個limit，depends on每個vertical（industry）。
  • 鑒於好多advanced countries嘅macroeconomic situation，我哋知道efficiency係advertisers喺2023年會好pay attention嘅嘢，所以佢哋未必有luxury去increase bid好多。
• Proportionately，如果query volume drop多過bid price嘅increase，paid search revenue可能會drop。

所以呢個對Google search advertising business唔好？

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella 講得好clear話Microsoft嘅ambition係go after Google喺search business嘅market share。有Bing & OpenAI integration，Satya hope更多人會被attract到Bing search同Bing chat。所以on balance，呢個potentially可以帶來更多paid search revenue俾Microsoft。

喺呢個scenario，好多人話situation對Google paid search business更差因為total query volume可能drop，加上Google可能lose market share。Double whammy。

仲有另一個medium term嘅possibility。就係Google/Bing搵到一個intuitive嘅方式將sponsored data/messages融入Chat interface。呢個represent一個net revenue stream俾search engines。呢個唔容易做因為可能impact chat answers嘅quality。但唔係impossible。（Well，我哋唔使等太耐。呢個係我呢個禮拜2月16日見到嘅Bing Chat上面嘅第一個iteration嘅ad。）

所以我對chat bot experience（OpenAI integration with Bing、Bard integration to Google search）對paid search revenue嘅impact有咩conclusion？

太早下結論。我知你哋有啲（或者好多）會失望見到我呢個conclusion :P 但based on以上嘅context同rationale，我唔覺得clear到可以知道situation會去邊個方向。仲有唔好忘記成個process係reflexive嘅，所以我哋可能用search engines同chat functions更多而唔係更少。

2) 對Search engine optimization (SEO) 嘅潛在影響

對我嚟講，對SEO嘅potential impact清楚啲。SEO game正在rapidly change因為：

• 有ChatGPT、Bing Chat、同即將嘅Bard，generate content嘅cost會significantly decrease。
• Generate content嘅speed亦都quickly reducing。
• 根據Search Engine Journal報導，Google set the record straight話佢哋value high-quality content，唔理係human定machine generate。換言之，只要Google machine認為你嘅content係high quality，match user search intent，你嘅content就會show up，即使AI寫嘅。
• 以上意味住SEO practitioners需要significantly up their game因為everyone而家有better tools。

喺一個AI-generated content flooding market嘅世界，unique perspectives同unique content會stand out更多。所以某程度上，focus on user同high-quality content喺SEO入面冇change。所以maybe由reflexivity angle睇，雖然generate mediocre content嘅cost同speed quickly下降，generate really high-quality content嘅cost同effort反而getting even higher :)

但仲有嘢。用chat interface search意味住人唔再click websites。呢個directly impact organic search嘅potential traffic。

所以well，意味住SEO practitioners需要work更hard（against competition），為potentially更少嘅return（即less traffic）。T.T

另一個possibility係SEO practitioners adapt同learn快啲，搵到ways去work with人prefer用Chat interface做certain queries，keep organic traffic coming。

3) 對publishers嘅潛在影響

呢個generative AI嘅seismic shift同佢同search engines嘅integration意味住：

• 好多publishers可能見到organic search traffic drop，尤其係non-navigational search queries。
• 更重要嘅係，Bing Chat/chatGPT同其他LLMs可以synthesize成個web嘅content咁well，users可能覺得去individual websites搵嘢less compelling。
• 當然，呢個contingent upon唔同公司improve LLM make things up嘅tendency嘅能力。

Website traffic少咗意味住publishers需要try even harder去monetize existing traffic。呢個會唔會加速更多content放落paywall後面、accelerate subscription model嘅adoption等等？

另一個possible outcome係produce更多non-text content好似videos、podcasts等。

同時，隨住AI tools越嚟越advanced同prevalent，generate text articles或images嘅cost會quickly decrease。呢啲tools可以improve content producers嘅efficiency。所以可能對publishers有net positive impact。

喺呢個early stage有firm conclusion確實有少少premature。

以上就係我嘅分享。如果你做search marketing或SEO，你點諗AI chat對你business嘅impact？你已經開始見到organic traffic或paid search performance嘅changes未？我好想聽你嘅take。

祝好，

Chandler

P.S: 如果你想讀吓我對OpenAI & ChatGPT整合Office 365可以點樣嘅educated guesses，呢度有。